Economic Inputs
- Inflation expectations
- Employment trends
- GDP growth
- Treasury markets
- Energy prices
- Market volatility
Virtual Economist
An AI-powered forecasting tool built for the mortgage industry
Virtual Economist combines machine learning, public economic indicators, market expectations, and aggregated Optimal Blue mortgage market data to forecast mortgage rates and lock volume. Explore how changing economic conditions could influence market outcomes, understand the drivers behind the forecast, and evaluate alternative scenarios to support planning discussions.
ML & AI-Powered Forecasting
Rates • Volume • Scenarios
Planning problem
Built for planning in an uncertain market
▶
Markets change.
Assumptions change.
Forecasts should too.
Market forecasts are everywhere. Confidence is not. Finance teams, capital markets leaders, and executives are often asked to make planning decisions using static projections, disconnected economic commentary, and assumptions that can change quickly. Virtual Economist helps bring those signals together in an interactive forecasting experience designed to support more informed planning discussions.
Virtual Economist helps lenders move beyond static projections by providing forecasts that can be explored, explained, and stress-tested as economic conditions evolve. Instead of focusing solely on what may happen, teams can evaluate how changing assumptions may affect rates, volume, and market activity.
These analytical insights and forecasts are for informational and planning purposes only. All outputs are model-driven and probabilistic, not guarantees of future performance. Users are encouraged to apply independent judgment and consider additional sources when making business decisions.
Differentiated data foundation
Powered by Optimal Blue market intelligence
Virtual Economist combines publicly available economic data with aggregated mortgage market activity observed across the Optimal Blue platform. This combination helps connect broader economic conditions to real mortgage market behavior, creating forecasts informed by both macroeconomic trends and mortgage market activity.
Market Expectations
- Federal Funds expectations
- Futures market signals
- Industry forecasts
- Economic projections
Optimal Blue Market Intelligence
- Aggregated lock activity
- Mortgage market trends
- Pricing-related signals
- Proprietary market insights
What Clients Are Saying
See clients react to
Virtual Economist
At Summit 2026, clients got an early look at Virtual Economist. Hear their first impressions of the interactive forecasting experience and its potential to support mortgage-market planning.
Scenario exploration
Start with a baseline. Explore what happens next.
Every forecast begins with a baseline outlook built from documented economic assumptions, market expectations, public economic forecasts, and mortgage market data. From there, Virtual Economist allows users to explore how changes in inflation, monetary policy, energy prices, economic growth, or other market conditions could influence mortgage rates and lock volume.
Ask Virtual Economist...
What happens if the Federal Reserve cuts rates more aggressively than expected?
What happens if inflation remains elevated longer than anticipated?
What happens if economic growth slows significantly?
How could mortgage lock volume change under different rate environments?
What could tariffs, energy prices, or market volatility mean for mortgage activity?
Methodology
Why you can trust the forecast
Greater visibility into forecast drivers
Traditional forecasts may provide an outlook without making every underlying driver easy to explore. Virtual Economist helps explain how that answer was reached.
Rather than relying on a single model, Virtual Economist forecasts key market components independently and combines them into a mortgage rate outlook aligned with OBMMI™ (Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index), the industry benchmark representing the average locked mortgage rate across the Optimal Blue platform. This structure allows forecasts to be broken down into drivers, explained clearly, and questioned as conditions change.
How the forecast is built
10-year Treasury
Model
Establishes the macro foundation of mortgage rates by modeling how growth expectations, inflation signals, volatility, and policy dynamics influence Treasury movements over time.
MBS Spread
Model
Models how mortgage-backed securities pricing diverges from Treasury yields by accounting for market risk, investor demand, and volatility conditions.
Primary-Secondary
Spread Model
Shows how secondary market execution translates into the consumer mortgage rate by accounting for margin behavior, market volatility, and proprietary Optimal Blue pricing signals.
Lock Volume
Model
Translates the rate environment into expected market activity by isolating interest rate impacts and seasonal origination patterns. Lock volume is expressed as a year-over-year percentage change to support planning.
LEARN MORE
Go deeper into the methodology
Dive deeper into the market dynamics, forecasting concepts, and analytical framework that help make Virtual Economist a more informed way to evaluate potential rate and lock volume scenarios.
Product experience
Designed to be explored
Virtual Economist combines predictive machine learning with a conversational experience designed to make forecasting more accessible and easier to evaluate. Forecasts are intended to be explored, questioned, and revisited as market assumptions change.
Built into the Optimal Blue platform, Virtual Economist supports natural interaction through voice or text prompts. Visual outputs and export capabilities help users evaluate potential outcomes and incorporate forecasting insights into planning discussions.
Personalize
Choose a Virtual Economist avatar for a conversational forecasting experience.
Ask
Use voice or text prompts to ask questions about mortgage rates, lock volume, economic conditions, or market scenarios.
Explore
Review forecast outputs, trends, visualizations, and supporting context.
Understand
See which market factors are contributing to forecast movements and how assumptions influence outcomes.
Apply
Export insights to Excel or PDF for planning discussions, budgeting exercises, scenario reviews, and executive presentations.
Conversational experience
Choose how you explore the forecast
Virtual Economist supports voice and text-based engagement through an AI avatar, allowing users to explore forecasts, scenario analysis, and mortgage market outlooks in a more natural way.
01
Use voice prompts
Ask scenario questions naturally and explore forecast outcomes through conversation.
02
Type text prompts
Enter questions directly to compare outcomes and evaluate planning scenarios.
03
Select an avatar
Choose an avatar economist preference for a personalized experience.
Avatar preferences
10 options available
Ask Virtual Economist
Voice or text interaction
What happens to mortgage rates and lock volume if inflation remains elevated longer than expected?
Who it serves
Built for teams responsible for planning, forecasting, and strategy
Secondary Marketing
Teams
Support pricing conversations and margin discussions with a structured view of what is driving rate movement.
Executive
Leadership
Evaluate potential market outcomes and planning scenarios using forecast-driven insights and structured scenario analysis.
Finance &
Planning
Support budgeting, forecasting, capacity planning, and operational readiness efforts with updated market outlooks.
Capital Markets &
Analytics
Increase confidence in the forecast with explainable components, drivers, and supporting context that clarify the “why” behind the numbers.
Experience Virtual Economist
Don't just forecast the market. Explore it.
Virtual Economist helps lenders evaluate possible outcomes, understand the forces driving market change, and incorporate data-driven forecasting into planning discussions across the organization. Forecasts and scenario analyses are designed to inform planning, not replace experience, judgment, or existing decision-making processes.
REQUEST A DEMO
Experience Virtual Economist
Connect with an Optimal Blue expert for a personalized walkthrough.